LSU vs. Mississippi State Prediction: Picks & Start Time – September 16, 2023

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SEC opponents will battle when the No. 14 LSU Tigers (1-1) meet the Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-0).

LSU vs. Mississippi State Odds

Point Spread

The spread for this matchup is set at 9.5 points, with bookmakers listing LSU as the favorites.

Moneyline

As for the moneyline, LSU has -373 odds to pick up the win, while Mississippi State is listed at +285 to claim victory.

Over/Under

Finally, the over/under for the game is set at 54.5 points.

Game Info

How to Watch LSU vs. Mississippi State Live?

  • Game Day: Saturday, September 16, 2023
  • Game Time: 12:00 PM ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Location: Mississippi State, Mississippi
  • Stadium: Davis Wade Stadium
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Betting Preview

LSU

LSU put up 34.5 points per game last year, 11.4 more than Mississippi State gave up per matchup (23.1). When LSU scored more than 23.1 points last season, it went 7-0 against the spread and 7-0 overall. Last season Mississippi State had a 6-4 record against the spread and an 8-3 record overall in games when it held opponents to fewer than 34.5 points. LSU collected 453.1 yards per game last year, 107.6 more yards than the 345.5 Mississippi State gave up per contest.

Mississippi State

Mississippi State scored 9.1 more points per game (31.6) than LSU gave up (22.5) last season. Mississippi State was 6-1 against the spread and 8-0 overall last year when the team scored over 22.5 points. Last year LSU had a 6-3 record against the spread and an 8-1 record overall in games when it held opponents to less than 31.6 points. Mississippi State racked up 38.3 more yards per game (392.9) than LSU allowed per outing (354.6) last season.

LSU vs. Mississippi State Betting Analysis

LSU Betting Insights

LSU has covered the spread one time this season (1-1-0). LSU is a perfect 1-0 ATS when playing as at least 9.5-point favorites. Every game involving LSU has hit the over so far this season. The Tigers have been the moneyline favorite only one other time so far this season, a game they lost. The Tigers have not yet played as a moneyline favorite of -373 or shorter.

Mississippi State Betting Insights

Mississippi State has covered the spread one time this year (1-1-0). Games involving Mississippi State have yet to hit the over once this season. This is the first time the Bulldogs will play as underdogs this season. The Bulldogs have not been a bigger underdog this season than the +285 moneyline set for this game.

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LSU vs. Mississippi State Against The Spread & Betting Records

LSU

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 53.5 55.3 51.7
Implied Total AVG 32.1 33.3 30.8
ATS Record 7-5-0 5-1-0 2-4-0
Over/Under Record 7-5-0 3-3-0 4-2-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 6-1 3-0 3-1
Moneyline Underdog Record 3-2 2-1 1-1

Mississippi State

Overall Home Away
Point Total AVG 54.7 54.0 55.4
Implied Total AVG 34.2 36.4 31.5
ATS Record 7-5-1 4-2-1 3-3-0
Over/Under Record 7-6-0 7-0-0 0-6-0
Moneyline Favorite Record 7-2 5-0 2-2
Moneyline Underdog Record 1-2 0-1 1-1

Last Season’s Leaders

LSU

  • Jayden Daniels passed for 2,913 yards (208.1 per game), completing 68.6% of his passes, with 17 touchdowns and three interceptions in 14 games last year.
  • On the ground, Daniels scored 11 touchdowns and picked up 885 yards.
  • Malik Nabers had 72 catches for 1,009 yards (72.1 per game) and three touchdowns in 14 games.
  • In 12 games a season ago, Noah Cain ran for 405 yards (33.8 per game) and 10 TDs.
  • On the ground, Josh Williams scored six touchdowns and accumulated 536 yards (48.7 per game).
  • Williams also had 21 receptions for 132 yards and zero TDs.
  • Harold Perkins had one interception to go with 67 tackles, 10 TFL, seven sacks, and four passes defended last year.
  • Micah Baskerville posted 79 tackles, four TFL, one sack, and one interception in 12 games.
  • Greg Penn III delivered 72 tackles, five TFL, and two passes defended in 12 games a season ago.
  • In 2022, Greg Brooks Jr. had two interceptions in addition to 57 tackles, two TFL, one sack, and three passes defended.

Mississippi State

  • To go along with his 3,963 passing yards and 67.9% completion percentage last year, Will Rogers threw for 35 touchdowns against eight interceptions.
  • Jo’quavious Marks piled up 582 rushing yards (5.2 yards per carry) and nine TDs.
  • As a receiver, Marks totaled 48 catches (on zero targets) for 288 yards and zero touchdowns.
  • In 12 games last season, Rara Thomas turned zero targets into 44 catches, 626 yards and seven touchdowns.
  • Dillon Johnson ran for 499 yards (5.5 yards per carry) and three touchdowns in the ground attack.
  • Johnson had 47 receptions (4.7 per game) for 274 yards (27.4 per game) and zero touchdowns.
  • Nathaniel Watson helped carry the defense with 101 tackles, eight TFL, five sacks, and one interception in 12 games.
  • Jett Johnson accumulated two sacks to go along with four TFL and 105 tackles in 12 games.
  • With 43 tackles and six interceptions, Emmanuel Forbes was an important player last year on defense.
  • With 74 tackles, Decamerion Richardson made a big difference on D.

LSU vs. Mississippi State Predictions and Pick

LSU vs. Mississippi State betting card

  • Pick ATS:

    Mississippi State (+9.5)

  • Pick OU: Over (54.5)

How to Bet on LSU vs. Mississippi State

You can bet on LSU vs. Mississippi State at every legal online sportsbook. For more college football odds, including moneylines, spreads, over/under totals as well as college football prop odds, check out the latest college football lines as well as our guide to the best college football betting sites.

And if you wanted to check out how much you could win on a $10 bet if you parlayed today’s LSU vs. Mississippi State picks, don’t forget to check out our free parlay calculator.

Not sure what a parlay is? Or even how to bet on college football? Check out our complete guide to sports betting.

Our prediction to win this contest is Mississippi State, and we predict that Mississippi State will cover the spread (LSU -9.5). Finally, we see the scoring in this one going over the posted total of 54.5 points.

WRITTEN BY

Dan Weiner

Hailing from Atlanta and attending college at the University of Texas, Dan is passionate about sports, particularly college football and soccer. He's a diehard Atlanta pro sports and Texas Longhorns fan. He likes every sport and will watch anything and everything the weirder the better. He joined Betsperts after an 11 year career in television production at ESPN.

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